Since December 2017, we haven’t seen the price of Bitcoin so close to its last All-Time-High (ATH). That was indeed a very merry Christmas because we reached for some time the amazing mark of 20.000 USD per coin. Sadly, after that, the Bitcoin price only went down and down, barely stopping at 3.200 USD one year later. A harsh and painful crash after touching the sky.

Luckily for us, it seems like a new bull run is coming now. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin just surpassed the 15.000 USD mark again, which means there’s just 33% left to repeat the last ATH. The price is in green, rising even more, and it’s not alone in this. Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA), and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) are following suit.

The reasons for this bull run are attributed to the increase of institutional support for cryptocurrencies (like PayPal adoption), and the publicized presidential elections in the United States. The U.S. dollar is the referential currency worldwide, and the country hosts a large number of major crypto-firms. That’s why the results of this election could impact somehow the cryptocurrency market.

It’s said that Donald Trump is against cryptocurrencies, while Joe Biden has shown a more neutral position about it. The ultimate results of the election aren’t ready at the moment of writing, but it seems like the candidate Joe Biden is taking the lead, and maybe that’d be good for Bitcoin and companions. But go ahead like this into the future from now would be reckless.

Is a price theory becoming true?

Back in December 2016, the current Chief Blockchain Architect at General Motors and Bitcoin enthusiast Michael B. Casey shared an interesting long-term price theory for the first cryptocurrency.

According to his analysis, Bitcoin has a marked tendency to suffer large financial bubbles, whose stages can be assimilated to Gartner’s hype cycle, a system to represent the maturity of new technology in the wild.

They’re five stages: Technology Trigger (launch and first tests of the product), Peak of inflated expectations (advertising plus some success and some failures), Trough of Disillusionment (more failures and some investors resigning), Slope of Enlightenment (the product begins to be more understood and cautiously adopted) and Plateau of Productivity (mainstream adoption).

With the price of Bitcoin, there’s then five equivalent stages: Bull Run (exuberant rise in price), Irrational Exuberance (peak of the rise), Crash (fall), Boring Low (the price stabilizes for a while), Volatilic Rise (steps towards a new rise) and Next Bull Run (restarting the cycle).

Complete hype cycles and bull runs in BTC. Source: Michael Casey

By then (2016), Casey counted six complete cycles for this theory, ending in 2017 (he didn’t guess the month, but we had the last Bull Run in December that year) and with increasing years between them. First, it was one year (2010-2011), then two (2011-2013) and then four (2013-2017).

It could be four again for the next 2021? The clues are pointing to it. But we’ll need to wait a bit more to find it out.

Featured Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

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Literature professional in the crypto-world since 2016. Writer, researcher, and bitcoiner. Working for a better world, with more decentralization and coffee.

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